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Wednesday, 27 January 2010

Final Apple Tablet Predictions

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We're only a few hours away from Steve Jobs taking to the stage and introducing us to Apple's latest innovation. We can only assume at this point that this is going to be in a tablet form factor and after hearing that Apple store employees were going through confidential training today I can only assume that it's going to be available to purchase tomorrow or at least within the next few days. So what exactly will this device have? Well that's what I'm going to look at in this post.


The majority of rumors claim the screen will be OLED and about 10.1 inches. I do agree that it'll be 10.1 inches but this device is not quite a laptop and not an iPod/iPhone so the cost has to be low. This low cost, approximately £400 would be a realistic price point, requirement would mean that OLED is too expensive.


It has been claimed that the Tablet has a steep learning curve when it comes to user interaction. Is this true? Is this really the Apple approach? Look at the iPhone. This device was developed with pure ease in mind, same goes for OS X. Why would jobs suddenly decide to make things complicated for the Apple users? The height of the complication is likely to be multi touch, nothing like Magic Mouse I hope. I would love to see a screen something like the BlackBerry Storm but with a bed of sensors allowing anywhere on the screen to be pushed down and so creating a keyboard like feel.


The software is going to be interesting. Since the ordinary user really doesn't care about the OS on their portable devices I don't see Apple having a problem releasing an OS that is an expanded version of the iPhone OS. This would give it backward compatibility with existing iPhone applications but also allow it to take advantage of the added power that a tablet would have. The applications from Apple will be similar to the defaults on the Mac and iPhone. I can see them adding to the iWork and iLife suite to support more online services, perhaps even an online version of Pages, Keynote and Numbers through MobileMe and I sincerely hope to see a mobile version of these applications on Tablet and iPhone.


A big surprise will be a streaming version of iTunes offered as both a part of MobileMe but also independently. The user can store their music in the cloud using the Home Sharing functionality built into iTunes already. The Tablet will then be able to stream this music through it's 3G connection. The removal of DRM will make this service possible for music.


The final core selling point will be ebooks. We've seen with applications such as Stanza how popular these now are so it's expected that this device will partner with a number of major content providers to provide books, magazines and newspapers. It's been interesting to see how magazines such as Esquire and GQ have presented themselves on the iPhone over the last couple of months and I believe that this is a similar style to what we can expect tomorrow. Full magazines well presented and easily accessible.

No matter how many or few of these predictions turn out to be true I must say I would not like to be in Mr Jobs shoes tomorrow. The hype around this upcoming announcements has reached such an extent that even if this device is brought in on the back of unicorns being held aloft by God Himself I still can't see how it would be anything other than slightly disappointing. I hope to be proved wrong and I hope the price point is positioned well so I can buy one.

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Monday, 8 June 2009

WWDC 2009 Approaches

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At 10 am tomorrow, 5pm UK time, Phil Schiller is due to take the stage in San Francisco. The Apple rumour mill has been in overdrive around this particular keynote for very good reason. There is a lot of hope that Dear Leader, otherwise known to you and me as Steve Jobs, will make a surprise appearance and bring with him some amazing piece of technology that will mark his return to Apple. I don't think it's going to happen, it might but I really doubt it. I'm going to make a couple of predictions in this post covering WWDC tomorrow and what I think will happen in the rest of June.

I honestly feel that tomorrow is going to mirror the Macworld keynote. During that event Phil did an excellent job of introducing products that were, lets face it, boring. If Steve had been in full health I don't think he would've been able to make those announcements anymore exciting than Phil made them. Tomorrow's likely to be the same. Phil can introduce us to Snow Leopard and iPhone OS 3.0 without ever introducing a new piece of hardware. We've seen the iPhone OS and we've heard what's in Snow Leopard. I'm suspecting that this is what poor Phil is going to be stuck with tomorrow.

If I was in his position though I would ensure that I had one surprise, but what surprise could the Vice-President of Worldwide Marketing pull out of the bag that would get people talking? There are really two. The first would be a rehashed version of the iPhone hardware. Maybe it will have Video editing, larger memory and faster processor. It's Phil level exciting, I don't mean that as an offense to him of course I simply mean that due to the timing he's not going to get THE BIG announcement. He can announce that it will go on sale at the end of June.

His second announcement, and the real surprise, should involve Mr Jobs. Not his actual return at WWDC because it's not the right setting or timing. He needs to announce the next event. A "One More Thing." that is simply a date and a location on a black screen with the Apple logo above it. That will be Steve's return. That will be the new major hardware announcement, probably a totally new iPhone for Verizon and maybe just maybe the Tablet.

So don't expect too much tomorrow in the way of new products. Maybe a new iPhone but it'll be no more than a rehash of the current one. The big announcement is going to be the return of Steve at the end of the month. In that keynote we will expect something major. I must say though that personally it will be great to see Steve return and I'm really happy that if this is a sign that his health issues have been sorted out. The Tech industry is a much better place when Steve's around than when he isn't.

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Monday, 13 April 2009

Why Steve Jobs Still Being Involved In Apple Is Bad News

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The Wall Street Journal reported some great news for Apple fans, Steve Jobs is still making the big decisions.

Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook runs the day-to-day operations at Apple, these people say. But Mr. Jobs has continued to work on the company's most important strategies and products from home, they say. He regularly reviews products and product plans, and was particularly involved in the user interface of the new iPhone operating system that Apple unveiled last month, these people say.

This sounds like great news doesn’t it? Steve may not be well enough yet to return to the day-to-day operations of the company but he’s certainly well enough to stay involved. Even if he never returns to the day-to-day operations he can still take on a roll of Chairman with oversight of product, or something like that. This news story prepares us nicely in fact for such an announcement in a couple of months in WWDC.

As with every story though there is another way to look at this one. I got a feeling that a lot of the current good feeling towards Apple was extending from the fact that the company was managing to produce well rounded products without the need for input from Mr Jobs. If he could not return then Apple would be OK because the management team were proving that they could more than handle things on their own. Even the argument that the products being released now were conceived and developed in Mr Jobs’s time could be countered with the fact that the product had to be brought successfully to market by the rest of the team only.

That’s no longer the case. Apple were not being lead by their management team minus Mr Jobs. Steve was still in control of the company the whole time. The article even pointed out how involved he was in the new iPhone OS. If I was an Apple investor I’d be worried about Steve’s apparent lack of ability to let the others take credit. He should’ve left the situation as it was and then appear at WWDC and announce his return to Apple in a full time roll, even if it’s not as CEO. I feel that this was a mistake. I now don’t think we’ve any proof that Apple can grow post-Jobs anymore.

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Friday, 27 March 2009

Jobs at WWDC '09?

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Apple have announced today that WWDC, Worldwide Developers Conference, will start on June 8th 2009. From a technology viewpoint we have to expect a new iPhone, the full release of iPhone OS 3.0 and Snow Leopard. On their own these are three exciting announcements but there may be one more announcement that will blow the rest away. The return or retirement of Steve Jobs.

I suspect that we will see Steve Jobs appear at WWDC during the Keynote. Unfortunately I also believe that this will be his final appearance as Apple CEO at WWDC. If Steve is unable to remain as CEO then the best time for him to leave will be after Apple announce three excellent new products that will keep the company secure for another year.

My only concern is 2+ years down the line. I've heard people say that since Tim Cook is doing such a good job as acting CEO he will make a good CEO. However, lets not forget that Steve is still in charge. He made it clear in January that he will still be making the big decisions during his medical leave. Lets also remember that the products that we are seeing now were planned and developed in Steve's watch and we haven't seen the Cook products yet. I don't doubt that Cook will do a good job and has an excellent management team in place but lets not think that the departure of Jobs won't impact the stock price because it will, hard.

Image from WWDC 2008 taken from Apple.com

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Wednesday, 14 January 2009

The Steve Jobs Email

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The following is taken from the Wall Street Journal:

Team,

I am sure all of you saw my letter last week sharing something very personal
with the Apple community. Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health
continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else
at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my
health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought.

In order to take myself out of the limelight and focus on my health, and to
allow everyone at Apple to focus on delivering extraordinary products, I have
decided to take a medical leave of absence until the end of June.

I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for Apple’s day to day operations, and
I know he and the rest of the executive management team will do a great job. As
CEO, I plan to remain involved in major strategic decisions while I am out. Our
board of directors fully supports this plan.

I look forward to seeing all of you this summer.

Steve

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Steve Jobs Taking Medical Leave

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The Wall Street Journal are carrying the story that Apple CEO is taking a medical leave of absence until June:

Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs, in email to employees, said his health issues are more complex than thought and is taking a medical leave until June.

Tim Cook is going to take over the day-to-day running of the company. Apple shares are currently down over 7% as of 22:06 GMT.

At this stage I’m not going to guess what’s wrong with Steve. All I’m going to say is that I truly hope he makes and full recovery from whatever is wrong and my thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family. We look forward to seeing him back on stage introducing us to new iPods in September.

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Monday, 5 January 2009

Macworld 2009 Predictions

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Well it’s that time of year again and while this years Macworld has been overshadowed by the news of Steve Jobs health, get well soon Steve, and the revelation that Apple are pulling out of Macworld after this years show it’s still time to make a few predictions. I’ve noticed that no one is highlighting the fact that this years Keynote could see the introduction of a new product. Steve being ill means that his avoidance of Macworld had nothing to do with lack of products.

So in the light of this news lets see what we’re in store for tomorrow.
1. New Mac Mini. Going from the rumors this one appears to be a sure bet. Going to be interesting to see if this evolutionary product will show that Apple are taking an interest in the mini or is this going to be a hobby like Apple TV.

2. New iMacs. Almost certainly will be larger in size with higher specs. I’ll be interested to see if there’s cinema display size iMac. Considering the fact that the Macbooks were redesigned to fit in with the iMac design the new ones will look exactly the same.

3. First Look At Snow Leopard. This is going to be interesting, if the footprint is going to be decreased you have to wonder exactly why. Apple control the computers and don’t really need to support low end machines so Snow Leopard could pack power and not really annoy anyone. Hence number 4.

4. I think we’re going to see either a tablet or Netbook to fit in with a new line of Apple online services. Expect to see the expansion of the MobileMe service. New Netbooks would be due at about the same time as Snow Leopard. Phil can show us Snow Leopard running on low end and beautiful machine and completely ruin Steve Ballmer’s speech on Wednesday at CES.

5. I don’t expect to see any new iPhones but a surprise visit from Steve shouldn’t be out of the question now that we expect him to look thin. In fact the announcement from Steve today would be a great way to ensure that the market doesn’t overreact when he takes to the stage at some point tomorrow. If he does then it will be for the “One more thing...” announcement so he can close out Apple’s final Macworld.

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Saturday, 20 December 2008

No More Stevenote.

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20080115-macworld-jobs Apple announced this week that the keynote at this years Macworld Expo will not be delivered by Steve Jobs. There’s no doubting that this is a disappointment and has killed a lot of interest in the conference but to be honest it is probably one of the most intelligent moves Apple have made in a while.

The media is full of talk of Steve being too ill to deliver the address this year but I don’t believe this for a second. I think there are probably four reasons why Apple are toning down their participation Macworld 2009, their final Macworld. The first reason is pride. You have to remember that large companies such as Adobe have already pulled out of the event. Steve Jobs does not take part in second rate shows and I’m afraid after watching others withdraw that’s probably how it was beginning to look. This years show will probably be pure sales figures and some marketing but not much else.

The second reason is Bill Gates, or more accurately no more Bill Gates. The Jobs keynote always competed with the Bill G keynote at CES for media time and Jobs had to have a certain amount of satisfaction watching Macworld get so much hype. With Gates now gone however Jobs is free to pull out knowing that the competition on that front is over.

The third reason is a possible lack of any major announcements. Since Steve’s last two event’s of 2008 have produced little to no surprises he probably has no intention of walking out on stage and basically delivering a state of the company address to people who have paid a lot of money to hear an, “and finally…”. Steve doesn’t do disappointment.

The forth reason is the most important reason of them all, the element of surprise. With Apple being forced to show new products in the first week of January each year people would begin to start searching for product information in December. Removing these sort of shows from the calendar allow the Cupertino company to deliver products at any time of the year with very little notice. Bringing back the element of surprise will bring back one of the strengths that Apple lost recently.

image from atsuki.net

Anyway you look at it there are plenty of good business reasons for Apple to pull out of Macworld before you look anywhere near Steve’s health.

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Tuesday, 5 August 2008

Apple Admits It Made Mistakes With MobileMe

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stevejobs_painting Steve Jobs has admitted in an email to the company that Apple made mistakes with the launch of MobileMe. The email makes a few very fair points and shows the Apple is willing to at least admit their mistakes. We'll see soon if they're learning from them too. The email was published in it's entirety on Ars Technica and I've copied it below:

Team,
The launch of MobileMe was not our finest hour.  There are several things we could have done better:
– MobileMe was simply not up to Apple's standards – it clearly needed more time and testing.
– Rather than launch MobileMe as a monolithic service, we could have launched over-the-air syncing with iPhone to begin with, followed by the web applications one by one – Mail first, followed 30 days later (if things went well with Mail) by Calendar, then 30 days later by Contacts.
– It was a mistake to launch MobileMe at the same time as iPhone 3G, iPhone 2.0 software and the App Store.  We all had more than enough to do, and MobileMe could have been delayed without consequence.
We are taking many steps to learn from this experience so that we can grow MobileMe into a service that our customers will love.  One step that I can share with you today is that the MobileMe team will now report to Eddy Cue, who will lead all of our internet services – iTunes, the App Store and, starting today, MobileMe.  Eddy's new title will be Vice President, Internet Services and he will now report directly to me.
The MobileMe launch clearly demonstrates that we have more to learn about Internet services.  And learn we will.  The vision of MobileMe is both exciting and ambitious, and we will press on to make it a service we are all proud of by the end of this year.
Steve

Image from Ars Technica too.

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Monday, 28 July 2008

Can Apple Be Trusted?

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I've been thinking about the MobileMe mess, the iPhone launch and the restrictions imposed on iPhone application developers and I have to wonder if Apple can be trusted. Before I continue I'm not saying Apple would do anything illegal or quesionable. That's not the type of trust I'm talking about. I'm talking about the kind of trust Enterprise customers need before they are willing to purchase your hardware.

The first point to get out of the way is the overly discussed issue of secrecy. It's been talked about so often that I'm not gonna spend too much time on it. Basically Enterprise customers do not like secrecy. They do not like surprise. They like to know months in advance what the upcoming hardware and software can do. They want to know which of their products are going to work and which ones are going to cause issues and they like to test them repeatidly before their customers get anywhere near the new product. That doesn't fit with the Apple "One last thing..." culture.

The next thing to consider is the Apple Ecosystem. Apple software favours the customer who buys only Apple software and interacts only with Apple products. However these kinds of restrictions cannot be imposed on Enterprise customers. Big companies have big clients and these clients will be using different environments. iWork 08 for example does not work well with Microsoft formats even though Office is the most popular word processing, spreadsheet and presentation environment. The fact is that Windows is a very open environment. Microsoft has made Windows so open and backward compatible that Corporations can feel confident that they can use their software on a Windows machine. This is most likely the key problem Vista is having. To code for it requires changes to applications that run just fine on XP, if it's not broken don't fix it.

If Apple are wanting to break into Enterprise properly then they have to start opening up to other companies. For example, blaming IE7 for not working with MobileMe properly is not the way to solve that issue. Apple want to be a big player and therefore they should've just coded to suit the most used browser in the world. Trying to force people to use Safari will not work in Enterprise environments were ordinary users cannot install whatever they want.

The third thing to consider is networking. Adding Apple machines to a network that also has Windows and other OS's on it is painful. For Microsoft Server 2008 only has to be able to play with Windows clients because they are the majority machine. If Apple wants to compete then they need to let OSX server be fully compatible with Windows clients. The compatibility has to go beyond file sharing, it must include permissions and groups. Enterprise doesn't have to replace all client machines at one time, they simply need to replace the servers as they feel they need to and they know that the effect on the clients would not be as noticeable as having to buy Macs would be.

Finally stop being so arrogant towards your investors and customers. If shareholders felt they needed to know about Steve Ballmers health for a justified reason you can guarantee they'd have their minds put at ease. That wasn't Apple's approach. They alledgedly stretched the truth. They twisted and finally an award winning author was insulted for voicing these concerns. This simply isn't the way a trustworthy corporation operates.

Apple could be a viable option for Enterprise if they play it right but their current tactics in the current environment is a receipe for disaster. Respect Microsoft in this field they are the Kings but at the moment Apple are nothing but the court jesters.

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Tuesday, 22 July 2008

Apple Mystery Product Transition, Is It Steve?

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Just to clarify this is a piece of pure guesswork which I sincerely hope isn't true. I've read the reports today on the Apple Q2 results and to start with congratulations Apple on a fantastic quarter. During the call however reference was made to a "Future product transition" that was going to have a detremental effect on Q3 results. Now this could be anything from an iTablet to what I beleve is most likely, an iPhone with the built in keypad. Actually I'm going on the record as saying that that's what I think it is but I want to consider one other possibility.

Reading some of the other reports that have been going around recently regarding the health of Steve Jobs and the way Apple dodged the question in the press conference by stating that his health is a private matter, I have to wonder if the product transition is Jobs himself. I really hope he is in full health and I hope he will remain at the helm of Apple for many years but he was worryingly thin at WWDC and while Apple put that down to him recovering from a bug there has been speculation that it's something worse and perhaps his cancer has reappeared. I can't say enough times that I hope it hasn't but if it has and if Steve needs to take time off to recover then the transition will certainly have a negative impact on Apple's Q3 results and what more important "product" does Apple have than Steve?

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Wednesday, 28 May 2008

Apple Keynote Bloopers

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With only 19 days to go until the Steve Jobs Keynote at WWDC I thought it would be fun to post video from YouTube covering some bloopers from past keynotes. Bill Gates, enjoy :)

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Thursday, 21 February 2008

Does the world really need more than five computers?

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From Greg Matter's blog:

THE WORLD NEEDS ONLY FIVE COMPUTERS

And, no, I'm not paraphrasing something that I bet Thomas J. Watson never uttered in 1943 anyway. But he should have because, ultimately, he might turn out to have been right.

Let's see, the Google grid is one. Microsoft's live.com is two. Yahoo!, Amazon.com, eBay, Salesforce.com are three, four, five and six. (Well, that's O(5) ;)) Of course there are many, many more service providers but they will almost all go the way of YouTube; they'll get eaten by one of the majors. And, I'm not placing any wagers that any of these six will be one of the Five Computers (nor that, per the above examples, they are all U.S. West Coast based --- I'll bet at least one, maybe the largest, will be the Great Computer of China).

I'm just saying that there will be, more or less, five hyperscale, pan-global broadband computing services giants. There will be lots of regional players, of course; mostly, they will exist to meet national needs. That is, the network computing services business will look a lot like the energy business: a half-dozen global giants, a few dozen national and/or regional concerns, followed by wildcatters and specialists.

Let me back up and explain what I mean by a Computer, and then why I think this is inevitable. I mean "Computer" as in the "The Network is the ...". These Computers will comprise millions of processing, storage and networking elements, globally distributed into critical-mass clusters (likely somewhere around 5,000 nodes each). My point in labeling them a Computer is that there will be some organization, a corporation or government, that will ultimately control the software run on and, important to my argument below, the capitalization and economics of the global system.

These Computers will be large for a number of reasons. It seems that the successful services are most definitely growing faster than Moore's Law. That is, in addition to upgrading to faster systems they are adding more of them and the compound growth is getting pretty spectacular in several cases. A company like Salesforce.com sees hypergrowth not in the form of some intrinsic demand on CRM (within an average company, definitely not growing close to Moore's Law --- Enterprise CRM is overserved by systems performance improvements), but rather the sum of consolidation of CRM systems across thousands and thousands of companies. Live.com is likely to fall into this camp, too. The growth seen by a Google or Yahoo!, on the other hand, is more directly a function of their pipe-filling roles: the greater the end-user bandwidth, the greater the demand on their infrastructure.

Moreover, there is most definitely an economy of scale in computing. To the extent that there is a scalable architectural pattern (cluster, pod, etc.), the per-unit engineering expense gets amortized over increasing capital volume. So, more and more engineering can be invested in driving higher and higher efficiencies at scale.

Our bet (meaning Sun's) is that, like the energy, transportation, telecommunications and power utility businesses, most of these companies will realize that they can become even more efficient if they rely upon a few, highly competitive and deeply technical infrastructure suppliers (think GE, Siemens, ABB for power systems, Boeing and Airbus for commercial aircraft, Ericsson, Nortel, Lucent/Alcatel, Nokia for telecom, etc.).

All this being said, a large enough enterprise (say, a big financial services firm) still have some pretty compelling reasons to build their own Computers. My only advice here is to approach the problem as one of latent scale. That is, think that you are building one of the world's five, but you just haven't quite grown into it yet! Same advice goes to start-ups: because either you will grow to become one of the big Computers, or you'll be acquired and be Borg-ed into one of them!

Naturally, we aim to be the premier infrastructure supplier to the world's Computers. Blackbox is just the beginning (More on Blackbox in a previous entry). Whatever its form (or color!) the emerging infrastructure will be far more efficient than what we think of for conventional enterprise computing. And, just as a reminder, that doesn't mean its piles and piles of cheap boxes, any more than you'd design a power plant with piles and piles of cheap portable generators. In the latter case, the little problems of noise, pollution, reliability and conversion efficiency are scaled into some really nasty ones.

Similarly, the cheapest computing is not necessarily obtained by lashing together racks and racks of the cheapest computers you can find. Engineering for scale matters. Really matters.

gmatter

It's a very interesting read and he makes some very interesting points but I have to wonder if this is the world the consumer really wants though? I'm not sure if I want my whole desktop online and more importantly I don't want to lose the choice. I want the option to choose email provider, office application, media players and other services and not have them thrust upon me by an overpowering force. It's not what the net is about and I can see the EU fighting such an idea tooth and nail. Here's a question to consider though, where does Apple fit into the grand plan above? I can't see Steve Jobs surrendering any time soon.

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Thursday, 17 January 2008

Google vs. Apple

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Could the peace between Apple and Google be coming to an end. In this quote from an interview Steve Jobs gave, it looks as if he's making the first threat that the war is approaching.

"I actually think Google has achieved their goal without Android, and I now think Android hurts them more than it helps them. It's just going to divide them and people who want to be their partners."

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/the-passion-of-steve-jobs/index.html?ex=1358226000&en=dc35254b0fcd5490&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

Would you regard Apple and Google as virtually partners at the moment because I would.

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Tuesday, 15 January 2008

Time Capsule Announced

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First news from the Keynote and it's the release of a new device called Time Capsule. Used for backing up computers. Server grade hard drive and 500Gb for only $299. A terabyte version released too. Seems like a baby version of Windows Home Server but I suppose it is wireless which is good.

Here's a picture from SlashGear:

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Macworld predictions

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Here are my predictions for what is going to be announced in today's keynote.

1. Apple TV2

2. Movies on iTunes

3. iPhone SDK

4. Slimmer Notebooks/Tablets

5. Takeover of Adobe (hence the Air reference).

6. Best sales figures ever

7. Number of iTunes downloads/iPhone users/iPod users

8. Apple takeover by Google (probably not but live in hope)!

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